[CME Data Shows Probability of Fed Rate Cut in October Rises to 96.2%] According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its October meeting is 3.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to 96.2%. Looking ahead to the December meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 0.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 21.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut is as high as 77.3%.