Today's market moves are still predictable and straightforward, and the Republican Senate leader has indicated that it's unlikely there will be a Senate vote over the weekend. This pushes the negotiations directly into next week. Every day of delay increases pressure on the Fed and the Democrats, while in the short term, it's favorable for Trump and the Republicans. The stock market has responded positively, investor sentiment is high, and Trump is probably grinning ear to ear. He’s probably hoping for the shutdown to continue. During his previous term, the shutdown lasted a record-breaking 35 days. This time, even if it exceeds two weeks, I think it’s still within expectations. The longer it drags on, the worse the labor market data will look, forcing the Fed to consider rate cuts, which would further stimulate the rise of risk markets. Until the shutdown is resolved, the market's rate-cut expectations should remain strong. Of course, being overly optimistic isn’t wise either. Geopolitical tensions seem to be escalating. Russia is still acting stubbornly and has even made statements about being ready to deploy nuclear weapons at any time. Although the market hasn’t reacted yet, I’m still worried about the potential for further escalation of war. Looking at Bitcoin data, the price increase has driven up turnover rates, and short-term investors are more motivated to sell. Current accumulation mostly started at $118,000. While I personally feel the price is a bit high, it hasn’t stopped investors from pouring in real money. Spot ETFs have exceeded average purchasing power for two consecutive days, yet BTC spot trading volume hasn’t seen a significant increase. When the price distribution reaches above $120,000, it becomes less balanced. For now, BTC above $120,000 still shows signs of accumulation, but it seems to be losing a bit of momentum. The key will be to see if tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data gets released. While the Labor Statistics Bureau is unlikely to release data during the shutdown, who can say for sure? The main focus remains on Monday. If Friday goes smoothly, the low liquidity over the weekend might even bring another big move. Sponsored by Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh