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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 03, 2025 12:45
We now have: 1. Rate cuts into 2.9%+ Core PCE inflation for the first time in 30 years 2. Rapidly deteriorating US labor market outlook 3. Deficit spending running at over 2 trillion per year 4. Jobs reports suspended due to government shutdown 5. Two more Fed rate cuts in 2025 into stagflation 6. 100B+ per quarter in AI CapEx by the Mag 7 Own assets or be left behind.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

Oct 31, 16:54The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, risk sentiment remains fragile
Oct 30, 13:18The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.
Oct 30, 06:14The Federal Reserve of the United States has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points.
Oct 29, 22:14The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.8%.
Oct 29, 18:23SOFR is 16 basis points higher than the reserve rate.
Oct 29, 18:10U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the Federal Reserve decision.
Oct 29, 18:05Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates
Oct 29, 18:05Traders bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further in December
Oct 29, 18:00The Federal Reserve's rate cap has been adjusted to 4%.
Oct 29, 12:37Interest rates, China, and tariffs drive stocks and Bitcoin higher

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