As a quasi financial market controlled by Wall Street and serving the US government, the cryptocurrency market has been endowed with completely different meanings and goals from the past, which also leads us to be unable to judge the market trend with the past four year cycle theory, market liquidity data, currency circle sentiment and other indicators. Instead, we have to use the means taken by the Trump government to judge the trend of Bitcoin. Otherwise, we can only short when Bitcoin is clearly rising like the famous "trader Andrew Kang @ Rewkang. The most important goal of Trump government's strong support for cryptocurrency: dissolving US debt Traditionally, there is only direct or indirect inflation to resolve the US government debt, but this inflation mode is extremely risky against the background of inflation that may be caused by forcing manufacturing industries to return to the US with tariffs, massive unemployment that will be caused by AI, huge government scale, and huge medical waste. So the Trump government found a way to earn both fame and wealth (the government that issued money to become rich by itself): crypto monetized debt. Debt conversion process: Encourage micro strategy companies to issue bonds to buy mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin/Ethereum (one-way lock up) and encourage traditional payment companies to fully introduce stablecoins ->Increase stablecoin liquidity+Bitcoin/Ethereum to boost the total market value of cryptocurrencies ->Increase stablecoin minting volume ->More US bonds enter the stablecoin pledge pool (similar to permanent lock up, avoiding fluctuations in US bond yields caused by previous holder sell offs) Based on this goal, from the perspective of the US Treasury Department, the most important data is the total amount and growth rate of stablecoins collateralized by US dollars/US bonds, with a current total of 270 billion US dollars. Real time data can be viewed here: https://(defillama. com)/stablecoins? backing=FIATSTABLES By the way, the reason why gold continues to rise in this pattern is that other countries (such as China and Russia) have seen through the US approach, but cannot imitate it (referring to the conflicted attitudes of Hong Kong and China towards stablecoins). To avoid being harvested, they have to constantly buy gold to counter this pattern. By understanding the current logic of the cryptocurrency market, it is easy to determine the trend of Bitcoin: closely following the USDT/USDC minting volume, with a significant increase in minting volume, Bitcoin will rise sharply, and if there is no increase for a long time, one must be particularly careful of a large pullback. The global economy will enter a major reset phase in 1-2 years, which will reset all assets of those with rigid thinking.