
徐冲浪|Oct 06, 2025 15:17
Today, when I was communicating with the brothers in Manchuria, I suddenly thought about why Trump wanted to go against globalization. I had never thought about it before.
From childhood to adulthood, I have been a market-oriented person who believes that the free market is infinitely good, because the WTO has always been very beneficial to China since birth. In the early days of catching up with the Yangtze River, there were almost unlimited market-oriented and global trade activities. Many people actually made their fortunes in this context, whether it is doing foreign trade or going global. Old Money believes in this set of things very much, being honest and following American laws.
An important reason for Trump's anti globalization is that globalization has come to an end. You can buy any product or accessory in the global market, which creates a problem. The United States does not need to set up its own companies to compete with other manufacturing countries. The cost of purchase is much lower than that of self manufacturing, so how to create demand and how to transform import demand into manufacturing demand has become a problem. Because self manufacturing, even if it does not make money, there will be employment and internal circulation (too damn China path depends)
The demand of the United States is certainly constant, but if it does not import, it will have to manufacture it itself. Therefore, tariffs, investment in intc, mp events, and so on, all of which are core to the fact that the United States needs to invest and build its own products to meet its own needs. Therefore, there will be investment, which is nothing more than government investment or seeking VC investment (such as SoftBank).
So where is the opportunity?
1. Among all the things that the United States considers important, but currently does not have them, they need to temporarily obtain them through imports and want to have complete control over them in the future.
2. In the United States, there is already a complete monopoly on things that even China's current technology cannot produce
Part 1 includes:
rare earth
Part 2 includes:
semiconductor
Large model algorithm
There is another one, I think it may be pharmaceuticals, but there are also many European pharmaceutical companies
So there is a reason for this round of consumption difference
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