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RamenPanda
RamenPanda|10月 11, 2025 16:29
Forwarding: CICC: What is the difference between the current tariff war 2.0 and April? Firstly, the degree of accidents varies. After all, the market has gone through it once and has some psychological preparation, unlike April 2nd which was a completely unprepared accident, and this is also the biggest difference. Secondly, the scope is different. From the perspective of the United States, the last equivalent tariff was aimed at almost all global markets, and this time it is mainly with China. Although China and the United States are the most important, the scope is still different. Combining the first point, it was explained that yesterday's "three kills of stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange" and volatility were not as significant as in April, with more stock market selling and less significant US bonds and the US dollar. Thirdly, there are different expectations for the future. After the last round of equivalent tariffs, the market has been completely in a state of confusion and uncertainty about how it will evolve in the future. Although there are still significant variables this time, the APEC meeting (October 31st November 1st) before the effective date on November 1st may make the market wait and see. Trump later stated that he did not rule out the possibility of a meeting. Fourthly, the preparation and situation of both sides are also significantly different. From the perspective of the United States, compared with the beginning of April, 1) the United States has reached agreements with most markets except India so far, 2) the Middle East ceasefire seems to have been reached, 3) the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and may continue to decline, 4) the Great Beauty Act has been passed, and 5) the fear of AI foam caused by DeepSeek's sudden rise has also disappeared. From China's perspective, AH has risen significantly and reached new highs, while macro fundamentals have weakened again recently. However, overall expectations and preparations should also be significantly stronger than in April. Fifth, the position of the market varies. There have been many floating profits in both the Chinese and American markets, with valuations higher than at the time, but the Chinese market is even higher. The US stock market, especially the Seven sisters, has started to pull back since DeepSeek suddenly broke the dominance of American AI in February. At present, the current valuation of the "seven sisters" in the US stock market is about 31 times, still lower than the high point of 33.7 at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. In April, it was 26.8 before customs duties, and the low point was 23 after the sharp drop; The current valuation of China's technology and consumer leaders is around 20 times, higher than the pre tariff high of 18.8 at the end of March and the post tariff low of 14 times. The overall index valuation is also similar, with the standard 500 index currently 21 times, a high of 22 at the end of last year, 20.5 times before equivalent tariffs, and a low point of 18 times after equivalent tariffs; The Hang Seng Index is currently 11.7 times, with a high point of 10.8 before equivalent tariffs and a low point of 8.8 times after equivalent tariffs. From a market perspective, compared to early April, what is relatively "unfavorable" is that there are more floating profits and higher valuations, just like the AI market of Hong Kong stock Hengke before March. Therefore, there is more willingness to take profits and settle for safety, which will cause short-term fluctuations. But this is still a short logic, and the relative advantage is that the level of panic and preparedness is better than at that time. The trend of the AI industry in China and the United States is also more clear, and the US currency and finance are gradually making efforts. Therefore, in order to experience panic and volatility similar to that at that time, it is impossible to make the market firmly reach a compromise.
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