US job market’s leading indicator is still deteriorating: The gap between Americans saying jobs are “plentiful” and “hard to get” fell to 7.8% in September, the lowest since 2021. This is the weakest reading in 8 years outside the 2020 pandemic spike. Historically, this measure been a leading indicator of unemployment, suggesting higher jobless claims ahead. According to Moody’s, there is no better predictor of changes in unemployment than this metric. The Fed will have no choice but to continue cutting rates.(The Kobeissi Letter)