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Benson Sun
Benson Sun|10月 15, 2025 17:07
If we only look at ATOM's lowest price of 0.001, it indeed doesn't affect contract liquidation, because the mark price for perpetual contracts excludes quotes that deviate too much. But there's a key reality being overlooked—the spillover effect of spot price discovery. The pricing power for altcoins' USDT spot trading pairs lies with Binance. If you take a closer look at the lowest points of USDT altcoin trading pairs on 10/11, they were generally much lower than USD trading pairs. And I'm talking about a shocking discount of over 50%, not just a minor 1-5% difference. This kind of massive decoupling between USDT trading pairs and USD trading pairs almost points to one possibility—that something seriously went wrong at Binance, the central hub for USDT pricing power. Other exchanges like OKX, Bybit, Bitget, Gate, and Kucoin don't have this level of market influence. Only Binance's price distortion could collectively drag down offshore market USDT quotes. When Binance's spot prices show abnormalities, even if perpetual contracts' mark prices don't directly use Binance's data, the entire market's price transmission chain is still affected. Mark prices are just the anchor for liquidation, not the starting point for price discovery. Take ATOM as an example from the text: Even excluding Binance's abnormal 0.001 price, the lowest price for ATOM/USDT on other offshore exchanges was around 1.5-1.6, while the lowest price for ATOM/USD on Coinbase was 2.872. That's nearly a 100% price difference. For a coin with a market cap ranking around 50, this is an extremely absurd situation. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Even without comparing to Coinbase's USD quotes, just looking at horizontal comparisons between offshore exchanges, Binance still had over 100 coins with lowest prices that were more than 10% lower than the second-lowest quotes from competitors. This kind of phenomenon didn't even occur during the most extreme black swan event on 3/12. Therefore, it's reasonable to infer that the core "gravitational center" causing USDT trading pair prices to be generally much lower than USD trading pairs is Binance itself. You can refer to the analysis report I made for more details: https://binance-deviation-report.(github.io)/ If on 10/11, the contract market had liquidated contracts based on USD trading pair prices, the liquidation volume would have been significantly reduced. As for what exactly went wrong with Binance on that day, the industry still owes us an explanation.
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Timeline

11月 14, 13:39Ethereum long position floating loss of $2.66 million
11月 14, 11:45Bitcoin dropped to around 95,000, Ethereum lost -11%
11月 14, 08:51Whales were liquidated when Bitcoin fell below $100,000.
11月 13, 18:37$200 million worth of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated
11月 13, 01:37POPCAT crashes, Hyperliquid loses $4.9 million
11月 13, 01:34On-chain Whale Movements Overview
11月 12, 16:58Bitcoin reaching 110,000 will liquidate $4 billion in short positions
11月 11, 12:00Bitcoin falls below 104K, liquidating $1.1 billion in long positions
11月 10, 01:45High-risk gambling rarely leads to good outcomes.
11月 09, 07:23October's crypto market adjustment may be a cyclical bottoming phase.

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