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BTCBTC
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|10月 16, 2025 13:15
BREAKING: Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has fallen to 4.1 billion, the lowest since April 2021. RRP usage, one of the financial system’s key excess liquidity metrics, has declined -2.5 trillion since its December 2022 peak. Meanwhile, bank reserves at the Fed dropped below 3.0 trillion, a level that many Fed officials consider the red line between abundant and scarce reserves. Such a low level can strain the financial system, making it harder for banks to lend money, and can cause spikes in market volatility or even bank failures. As a result, Fed Chair Powell just said that the end of QT may be approaching in the coming months as liquidity conditions tighten. Market liquidity appears to be at a critical point.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

11月 14, 13:11BTC fell below 96,000
11月 14, 12:51The decline is no less severe than last year and this year.
11月 13, 16:49CME and Kalshi lower the probability of a rate cut in December
11月 13, 03:14The U.S. government ends its shutdown, increasing uncertainty in the release of economic data.
11月 12, 15:57Is the market overly confident about a rate cut in December?
11月 12, 07:23Non-farm payroll and CPI data will be exciting
11月 11, 22:08The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%.
11月 10, 19:01Market sentiment recovers after the shutdown ends, U.S. stocks rise.
11月 10, 12:51The Federal Reserve ends tightening, signaling the start of a liquidity injection cycle.
11月 10, 06:27The U.S. government shutdown impacts market capital flow

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