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BTCBTC
💲75701.55
+
1.62%
ETHETH
💲2308.98
+
1.27%
SOLSOL
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0%
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XRPXRP
💲1.42
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0.71%

大老师Bugsbunny
大老师Bugsbunny|10月 16, 2025 21:38
Making a left-side prediction, also a rehearsal. The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are likely to take the following two measures to address the anticipated risk of a technical default on short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills): 1. The Treasury will use cash (TGA account) to pay off maturing Treasury bonds. The current TGA account is relatively well-funded, at 750k million. So, there won’t be an actual default, only a technical one. 2. Coordinated operations with the Federal Reserve (Fed) (liquidity coordination). For example: Temporarily providing market liquidity through repo facilities; The Treasury might communicate with the Fed to delay some auctions or adjust settlement schedules to avoid issuing bonds during periods of tight liquidity. ———— Trading opportunities: 1. At the moment when the Fed conducts reverse repos or the Treasury pays off bonds, there will be a sell-off in gold sentiment-driven funds. That will be a short-term pullback opportunity for gold. Friends looking to invest in gold can seize this chance. 2. The VIX will see a deep pullback, so you can short VIX-related ETFs. 3. Leading tech stocks will bottom out (as a large number of short positions will be closed).
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Timeline

11月 15, 19:05Gold is overbought, Bitcoin is oversold
11月 15, 18:54Polymarket users predict the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates in December.
11月 15, 16:31Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume is huge, and the market is facing selling pressure.
11月 15, 16:10The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped to 44.4%.
11月 15, 04:12U.S. stocks rebound, BTC has not significantly followed the rise for now.
11月 15, 02:44Bitcoin's current sell-off may be a mid-cycle correction in the bull market
11月 15, 00:36The U.S. stock market recovers, Nvidia's rebound gives confidence to the market
11月 14, 19:34The bottom has arrived or is near.
11月 14, 17:00Risk assets were sold off, and BTC extended its losses.
11月 14, 15:55The market is still selling off

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