**[Analysis: This Cycle Approached the Bull-Bear Boundary Three Times but Never Broke Below, Current BTC Fair Price at $97,000]** BlockBeats News, October 19: On-chain analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's fair price is calculated as the historical average of accumulated MVRV. If the market valuation level (MVRV) is at its historical average, then BTC's price should be near this level. Therefore, the fair price is considered a "mean reversion center." Over the past 10 years, during Bitcoin's three previous cycles, the fair price (blue line) has almost always acted as the dividing line between bull and bear cycles. After a bull market begins, even if BTC experiences pullbacks, it is highly unlikely to fall below the blue line. Whenever the value returns to this level, it triggers strong buying pressure. In this cycle, BTC has been trading above the fair price for nearly two years. During this period, it has come extremely close to the blue line three times: after the approval of the ETF, leading to a "good news turns bad" scenario; the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024; and the tariff crisis in April 2025. However, it has never fallen below the fair price. In the context of a bull market, BTC returning to the fair price represents the best buying opportunity. Currently, the blue line is positioned at $97,000. If traders believe the bull market foundation remains intact, buying BTC when it approaches $97,000 would be highly cost-effective. If users believe the market has transitioned into a bear phase, they can continue to wait for a deeper bear moment, which might present an opportunity to acquire cheap tokens below $55,000. This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.