I used to pick up these kinds of opportunities often, but later I felt it wasn’t really worth it. The main issue is the capital being tied up—getting a 5% return over more than two months doesn’t seem too worthwhile, especially in small capital pools. Now, I prefer hunting for opportunities like this instead. For example, we know the U.S. government has been shut down for 18 days already. Next week, the House of Representatives is on recess, so there’s a high chance they won’t vote for the entire week. That means the shutdown could likely last 25 days. This is one of the top four scenarios. Another thing I like is finding cases where Yes and No add up to less than 100%. This post is sponsored by Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh