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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 19, 2025 16:44
Something unusual is happening this week: On Friday, we are receiving CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown. Not only is it 5 days before the October 29th Fed meeting, but it is the first time CPI data will be reported on a Friday since January 2018. The Labor Department has said that NO OTHER releases will be rescheduled or produced until the shutdown ends. This comes during a highly pivotal time for the Fed as they debate whether to continue rate cuts or not. This is drawing speculation of a "bullish" September CPI report. What's happening here?(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

Nov 18, 08:05Trump remains silent due to declining approval ratings.
Nov 18, 06:55The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is fifty-fifty.
Nov 18, 05:16Large funds believe there will be no interest rate cuts in December.
Nov 18, 03:53Bitcoin dips to $90,000, market prepares for a deep decline
Nov 18, 03:25International spot gold is under pressure above $4,000.
Nov 17, 21:12U.S. Treasuries partially rebound as the market focuses on data recovery and rate cut expectations
Nov 17, 20:58The buying-the-dip momentum in U.S. stocks has weakened
Nov 17, 20:34Interest rate cuts in December will safeguard the labor market
Nov 17, 19:12The probability of a Federal Reserve decision has changed
Nov 17, 16:42The probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at the December 2025 meeting has surged.

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