Why do I still firmly believe the bull market is ongoing, even after experiencing two major crashes? I won’t repeat the points I’ve already made—feel free to check out my previous posts. But one thing that supports my view is the possibility that what we think of as the main bull run hasn’t even started yet, which doesn’t align with the usual rhythm. A year ago, BTC’s ATH was 109,800, and this time it’s 126,200, hovering around the 110k range with repeated fluctuations—essentially high-level consolidation near the previous ATH. If BTC has only risen 15% above the previous ATH, can this even be called a bull market? At best, the past year has been wide-range consolidation. When there’s high-level consolidation near ATH, there are only three possible outcomes: first, it transitions into a bear market; second, it continues as a choppy monkey market; third, it consolidates before entering the main bull run. Everyone has their own judgment, but I still firmly believe there’s another big wave coming. Another reason is that this year hasn’t felt like a typical bull market. Strictly speaking, there’s only been one wave, which lasted about three months from mid-April to around July. Since then, it’s been wide-range consolidation for over three months now. If the year-end bull market hasn’t started yet, how can we talk about transitioning from bull to bear? Historically, when has there ever been a bull-to-bear transition like this? Plus, there are still policy expectations in play. I believe the main bull run of this macro cycle hasn’t started yet. Whether it’s sooner or later, it will come eventually—better late than never. Be patient and wait. If you’re worried about a bear market, manage your positions wisely. I’m currently operating with half my portfolio, staying rational and leaving room for flexibility.