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BoreasWu
BoreasWu|Oct 20, 2025 15:56
Been seeing market makers speaking out intermittently. The cause of the most extreme black swan event on 10.11 is likely confirmed. It aligns with my previous guess. It was Binance's API outage at 5 AM on 10.11 that caused it. All market makers couldn’t place orders to provide liquidity. All coins saw their prices nosedive. All positions with leverage above 1x were wiped out instantly. All other CEXs/DEXs that use Binance’s price as a major weight for contract index pricing were heavily impacted. Regulators really need to investigate this properly! A few days later, the hype dies down, and Binance is still thriving. That’s fucking Crypto. This also exposed a huge structural risk in the current contract market of the entire industry. We absolutely cannot overly rely on the trading prices of top centralized exchanges as index prices or reference quotes anymore. We must consider on-chain DEX prices, and even use them as the primary weight. 1. CEX trading volume leads, but the data might be inflated. 2. In normal market conditions, CEXs have an advantage in order book depth, but it’s superficial. When high volatility or black swan events occur, market makers can pull liquidity in less than a second. 3. On-chain LPs can also withdraw liquidity, but in mature on-chain DeFi ecosystems like EVM, SOL, SUI, MEV bots are already highly competitive. Once there’s a price difference between pools, MEV bots will immediately arbitrage and smooth out the price difference, maintaining a transparent, fair, and stable on-chain market price. 4. Centralized servers have outage risks, like what happened on 10.11. Not sure if this is the first API outage, but it’s certain that whenever this happens—especially at exchanges with pricing power—it’s a systemic blow to the industry. 5. There’s absolutely no way to rule out the motive for centralized exchanges to act maliciously, and the data is extremely opaque. A week has passed, and Binance still hasn’t issued an announcement explaining the specific cause or disclosing the real liquidation data. ⚠️ Crypto Binance Liquidation
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