How to predict whether Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet will transfer Bitcoin on Polymarket Today I tried Polymarket and found the user experience to be very good, but the website was a bit laggy. Writing a guide is convenient for beginners to use. 1. Registration To register, simply log in to the official website https://(polymarket. com)/and click on Sign Up in the upper right corner. When registering, you can choose email or wallet. The wallet I selected will pop up a floating box with 3 steps: -Deploy proxy wallet -Open transaction -Authorize USDC You need to sign with your wallet 3 times, you don't need to prepare gas yourself, Polymarket helped out. 2. Deposit After registering, click the Deposit button in the upper right corner to recharge. I thought I could only recharge Polygon's USDC, but I didn't expect it to already integrate @ RelayProtocol's cross chain routing. Mainstream coins from other chains can also be recharged and automatically exchanged for Polygon USDC. 3. Start playing There are many types of markets predicted by Polymarket, which makes me a bit dazzled. But this time it was just an experience, so I chose a fun theme "Will Satoshi Nakamoto transfer Bitcoin from his wallet in 2025. Rule: If the Satoshi Nakamoto address marked by @ arkham browser has "Overflow" or "Swap" before December 31, 2025, the market will mark it as "Yes". Holding "Yes" will result in 1u per share, while holding "No" will result in zero; Vice versa. Trading mode: Polymarket supports 4 trading modes: 1. Buy: Buy "Yes" or "No" 2. Sell: Sell "Yes" or "No" 3. Merge: Merge the "yes" and "no" of 1 share into 1u. 4. Split: Split 1u into a portion of "yes" and "no". Most players only need to use the first two trading modes, while the latter two are mainly used for arbitrage. At present, the price of "yes" in this market is about 0.06u/share, and the price of "no" is 0.94u/share. We understand it this way: the current market forecast predicts a probability of 6% for "Bitcoin transfer in Satoshi Nakamoto wallet". At first glance, this probability may be overestimated, as I subjectively believe that Satoshi Nakamoto's move to Bitcoin is an event with a probability close to zero. But there are also risks involved, here are the ones I can think of: -Satoshi Nakamoto himself or his relatives holding the private key transferred Bitcoin from his wallet in 2025. -The private key of Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet was stolen, and Bitcoin was transferred. (Very low probability) -The private key of Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet has been cracked (such as the sudden advancement of quantum computing), and Bitcoin has been transferred. (Very low probability) -The Bitcoin core has undergone a hard fork of the Bitcoin transfer from Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet. (Very low probability) -Arkham made a mistake by marking the address of Satoshi Nakamoto as "Transfer" or "Swap". (Low probability) But with the idea of giving it a try, I still answered 'no' to 100u (106 copies). If Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet really transfers Bitcoin, this 100u will be reset to zero; If not, I will receive the principal plus a return of 6u. Let's wait and see! @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade