Today is October 22nd, BTC price is 108,100. Yesterday, the price rebounded to 113,900 due to news-driven momentum. The day before, we set the rebound limit at 114,200, and these two numbers are very close. A major reason for this is that the 4-hour MA250 line is the most important moving average in the market. For it to break through this line, all smaller moving averages like MA5, MA10, MA20 need to align and show a clear bullish pattern. Until then, the main strategy remains shorting the rebound. The current trend is mostly grinding. If you ask how much it can drop, it’s hard to say right now. 104,000 is the major support level of the 250-day moving average. This line has been the key support from the beginning of 2023 at 15,000 to the end of 2025 at 110,000—a nearly 4-year-long support line. In other words, BTC has been steadily climbing along the 250 MA for 4 years and has never effectively broken below it. So, it’s not entirely bearish. If you want to go for a trend short position, wait until this line is broken. If you want to go long, wait for the smaller moving averages to align. For now, the rhythm is intraday rebound shorts.