Where I think the market is right now. Long Term View: This cycle has been different. Instead of classic vertical runs we have seen in the past cycles that would take us to 90th+ quantiles, Bitcoin has failed to go above 80th and really spent most of the time in the 33rd to 66th quantile range. Right, now it is sitting right on the median (50th). Instead, we have had a crab crawl: three mini bubbles (with long corrections) instead of one (or two) blow-off tops. Crashes have been limited, and volatility subdued. IMO this has been primarily the result of the financialization of Bitcoin. Paper Bitcoin products pulled some demand forward (causing an early ATH comp. to prev. cycles) and highly popular BTC treasury and ETF options trades pulled demand away from spot and toward newly minted paper. The result is low volatility but deeper and more mature market. What does the onchain data tell us then? Let's take a look at our onchain view in the first comment. (LINK TO FULL NEWSLETTER IN MY BIO.)