Today in the CoinKarma member group, we discussed a core question - what stage is the current market in? If we look at it optimistically, the current situation is more like: - 2021/5/19 ～ 2021/7/22 - 2023/8/18 ～ 2023/10/10 These two periods are both high volatility oscillation intervals after experiencing a sharp decline. Although the market has undergone a severe wash, it still belongs to the intermediate stage of the bull market as a whole. But if we look at it pessimistically, That's more like 2021/12/4 to 2021/12/21. That was a premonition period when the upward momentum completely dissipated and the bull turned bear. I personally still have a bias towards BTC. But if we really enter a bear market, I think this round will also be a relatively mild bear market. Why do you say that? Because of the bear market after December 4th, 2021, At the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle, The macro environment is extremely unfavorable for risky assets, In addition, there were still a large number of hidden levers in the market at that time: Concentrated risks such as LUNA, 3AC, Alameda, etc, After the explosion, a chain reaction was formed. If you carefully observe the downward trend in 2022, The two waves that actually accelerated the collapse were LUNA and FTX. The rest of the time, it is mostly a volatile decline. Although the market is weak, there are still fluctuations to be made, Skilled traders still have room for improvement in that environment. On the other hand, at present, The overall leverage has already been cleared, The macro environment has also turned into a cycle of interest rate cuts, And after experiencing the baptism of 2022, the entire industry, Structurally, it has become healthier. Although there is a high probability, Some institutions are now insolvent on the table, But the spillover effects of such events, It should not spread throughout the industry like 3AC did back then. Simply put: Even if we really have to turn the bear here, It is also highly likely to be a more resilient bear market. As a trader with a left leaning style, This kind of environment is actually the home field that I am good at. Large enough fluctuations, slow enough pace, and fluctuating emotions—— It just gave us space for the system to repeatedly enter and adjust warehouses. After the 1011 incident, Ultron's net worth increased by another 13%, This' mudfight style 'volatile market, For most people, it's hell, but for our quantitative system, It is the time to fully utilize one's advantages.