DC大于C|Oct 24, 2025 08:10
I’ve looked into this before—if liquidity gradually recovers, BTC reaching $200K or even $250K isn’t out of the question. Why do I say this? @SentientAGI
Of course, I’m not asking @SentientAGI AI, this has little to do with @SentientAGI AI.
Remember when the BTC spot ETF was approved, BTC’s market cap was just $90 million, while gold’s market cap was close to $2 trillion when its spot ETF was approved back in 2004. That was a time when fiat currency inflation wasn’t as high as it is now. And back then, the global economy was doing pretty well too.
Then, by 2007, gold’s price had roughly doubled before entering a period of fluctuation. You can check out the chart below for specifics.
Now look at BTC—after the spot ETF approval, it went from $40K to a peak of over $120K, more than tripling. Can it keep going? Or is the bear market coming? It’s already gone up so much—what more do you want?
⚠️ Note: This time, the rally isn’t just about the ETF. There’s also the U.S. embracing crypto, stablecoin legislation, more MicroStrategy moves, etc. But don’t forget, we’re in a loosening trend, not a tightening one.
Turning bearish would require a shift in the underlying logic—like entering a tightening cycle, right?
Some of you might say, even if what I’m saying is possible, $200K or $250K won’t happen so quickly. Gold is gold, BTC is BTC, haha.
The loosening trend hasn’t fully arrived yet, so it’ll take time. It’s not going to happen in one or two months. After all, interest rates are still at 4.25%, and the balance sheet reduction hasn’t ended yet. Balance sheet expansion won’t happen that fast either, so don’t expect it to happen overnight.
And of course, is BTC really “digital gold”? Does the future loosening trend truly justify such high expectations?
What I want to say is:
Keep your imagination alive, focus on changes in the underlying logic, and let’s wait and see.
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