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ๆ˜Ÿ็ƒๆ—ฅๆŠฅ
ๆ˜Ÿ็ƒๆ—ฅๆŠฅ|10ๆœˆ 29, 2025 12:23
[ADP Employment Data May Impact Fed's Confidence in December Rate Cut] Market analyst Giuseppe pointed out that the four-week employment data released by the U.S. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company as of October 11, 2025, shows an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, totaling approximately 57,000 jobs, far exceeding the Dallas Fed's estimated monthly breakeven point of 30,000 jobs. The strong performance of the ADP data may make Federal Reserve Chair Powell more cautious when hinting at a December rate cut, potentially being seen as a hawkish surprise and having a significant impact on the market. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Waller has previously expressed support for rate cuts but recently emphasized the need for caution.
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Timeline

11ๆœˆ 28, 09:55The probability of a rate cut remains steady at 85%.
11ๆœˆ 27, 08:45The market bets on a rate cut in December
11ๆœˆ 26, 23:02JPMorgan predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
11ๆœˆ 26, 18:55Kevin Hassett becomes Trump's preferred successor for Federal Reserve Chair.
11ๆœˆ 26, 02:59News about the Federal Reserve Chair candidate has not made a breakthrough.
11ๆœˆ 26, 02:51The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 85%.
11ๆœˆ 26, 02:31The S&P 500 Index is expected to rise to 7,490 points next year.
11ๆœˆ 25, 18:28JPMorgan predicts the US dollar will weaken in 2026
11ๆœˆ 25, 13:44A Federal Reserve governor stated that the U.S. economy needs significant interest rate cuts.
11ๆœˆ 25, 13:27Besant stated that the Federal Reserve should step back and simplify measures.

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