**[Analysis: Bitcoin's Current Price "Almost Has No Bubble," Nearly 40% of Supply at a Loss]** BlockBeats reported on November 6 that analyst Murphy stated in an article that Bitcoin's recent decline has brought it extremely close to its fair value—$98,000. Bitcoin's fair value is calculated as the historical average of the MVRV ratio. If the market's valuation level (MVRV) is at its historical average, then BTC's price should be near this level, making fair value a "mean reversion center." Compared to the average cost of all active supply, the current price almost has no bubble. If the market remains rational, value discovery should occur, and buying interest should emerge. If the price continues to fall below this level, it indicates that the market has entered an irrational phase (oversold) or a collapse in confidence, which would disregard value reversion and instead lean toward active risk aversion. The current BTC Profit Supply in Profit (PSIP) ratio is 72%, which has already fallen into the extreme range of a bull market correction (70%-75%). Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings and lost BTC, this ratio would be even lower, meaning that at least nearly 40% of the supply is currently at a loss. It has also been observed that the proportion of losses among long-term holders has surged, which is another signal that the correction has entered a relatively bottom range. The analyst believes that the recent decline is either the extreme of a bull market correction or the beginning of a bearish cycle. The analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.