The non-farm payroll data that was supposed to be released tonight got skipped for the second time due to the U.S. government shutdown. This adds another layer of uncertainty to the Fed's potential rate cut in December. The current situation perfectly aligns with Powell's remarks after the last rate cut—driving in the fog. This means the Fed will have to make decisions at the next meeting without labor market data or inflation data. So, there are two possible scenarios: 1. The Fed can't confirm worsening employment → Afraid to cut rates Hawks could argue against a rate cut, citing the lack of labor data and the distortion in unemployment rates caused by government employees staying home during the shutdown. 2. Missing economic data → Prevent mistakes → High probability of a rate cut After the rate cuts in September and October, the labor market has already been slowing down. Alternative data like ADP shows the labor market is weakening. Most importantly, the Fed wouldn't want to risk systemic issues caused by overly tight monetary policy. For Trump, holding his ground without compromising is like kicking the ball to the Democrats and the Fed. In the end, it's highly likely the Democrats will compromise + a December rate cut will happen as expected. The "King of Deals" will once again hype his winning strategy.