Scott Johnsson|Nov 11, 2025 20:37
Some interesting similarities in market behavior between now and the spring BTC drawdown.
- Both times, BTC peaked about 4 weeks before major indices
- Both now and then spent about a month to drawdown ~17-18%
- At that same time, both had about equal nominal ETF outflows (~2.75B) in that first month, through proportionally larger as a % of AUM in the spring
A lot of different variables this time, so no reason to think the pattern holds, but out of curiosity it would be another ~month of drawdown to about $91k (28%+) and about 2x the current ETF outflow (not a prediction)
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