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|Legacy
BTCBTC
💲76018.38
+
2.51%
ETHETH
💲2321.64
+
2.16%
SOLSOL
💲85.76
+
2.45%
USDCUSDC
💲0.9994
-
0.01%
RAVERAVE
💲1.00
+
54.73%
XAUXAU
💲4828.45
+
0.78%

Scott Johnsson
Scott Johnsson|Nov 11, 2025 20:37
Some interesting similarities in market behavior between now and the spring BTC drawdown. - Both times, BTC peaked about 4 weeks before major indices - Both now and then spent about a month to drawdown ~17-18% - At that same time, both had about equal nominal ETF outflows (~2.75B) in that first month, through proportionally larger as a % of AUM in the spring A lot of different variables this time, so no reason to think the pattern holds, but out of curiosity it would be another ~month of drawdown to about $91k (28%+) and about 2x the current ETF outflow (not a prediction)
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Timeline

Dec 02, 17:27BTC has dropped 76% from the peak of the next cycle.
Dec 02, 05:11MSTR's net asset value has been negative since November 12.
Nov 26, 20:34Large deposits in Bitcoin exchanges are increasing
Nov 13, 14:57CDD distribution signal diverges from ETF outflows
Nov 13, 03:30The 4-year Bitcoin cycle may have been permanently broken
Nov 10, 18:45Bitcoin BTC reaches its peak
Nov 10, 11:58BlackRock Bitcoin ETF weekly outflow hits a 9-month high
Nov 05, 02:03ETF liquidity is weakening
Oct 28, 11:30Retail FOMO returns, suggesting Bitcoin bull market nearing its peak
Oct 27, 17:30The market value of AI increased by 5% this week.

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