MSTR's basic mNAV is at 0.94... but what does that mean? Also, is the average Bitcoin purchase price of 74,000 relevant? Let's take a closer look. Nothing concrete for MSTR or Bitcoin at this moment, but it is the start of a cascade that will be very difficult to stop for @saylor. Let's look at the facts atm and how they may play out further: 1. He can't sell MSTR for Bitcoin anymore, since that is hurting shareholders now with "negative bitcoin yield" - an entirely made up metric, but he would be diluting shareholders, so it doesn't make any sense anymore. 2. He can't sell STRC for Bitcoin since it is lower than 99 USD and unlikely to stay at a "sell-able" level. 3. All his prefs ( STRD, STRF, STRK) are trending down and are at a massive discount - so, he won't be able to raise much funds there either. 4. The demand for new Prefs and Converts seems to be zero. Let's see if/when STRE actually comes to market. 5. MSTR has to pay around 15mil USD in dividend and interest and operating cost per week... this will have to come from Commons (MSTR). 6. This is all common knowledge. Options- and Convert-Arb traders will jump off MSTR and close their arb. MSTY holders will sell MSTR. 7. Any ETF will sell off MSTR as the % in the ETF is dropping. So, all this will put even more pressure on MSTR and thus mNAV. My personal calculations are that mNAV will go to around 0.2... so another 70-80% down from here compared to Bitcoin. Then, 1 of 3 things happen: 1. Existing MSTR Shareholder want a return of capital (aka dividend) -> this will be a massive sell pressure on Bitcoin. Basic mNAV is what matters here. 2. Saylor goes into voluntary liquidation or Shareholders force such a liquidation. Diluted mNAV is what matters here. This will be an insane sell pressure on Bitcoin. 3. The Converts come due and Saylor can't pay them and he goes into involuntary liquidation. This would be havoc and I think Bitcoin would drop below 1,000 USD easily. The only way out I see is for a larger buyer to step in... the only one I see is the government, but why would they bail out a useless company. Fun fact: The average Bitcoin purchase price of 74,000 USD is totally irrelevant to MSTR... all it does is skew the unrealized gains/losses... a totally made up metric by Saylor anyways. Nevertheless, this is not looking good... Just a matter of time. Tick Tock.(Dr. Julian Hosp)