Who is selling it? I seem to have some clues. After November 15, 2024, there was a huge volume of trading in the Bitcoin spot ETF (see Figure 1), and a huge gap was formed in the CME futures on that day (see Figure 2 for the first gap) The transaction price during this period is generally between 88000 and 106000 yuan Individuals or institutions who buy at this moment have been doing so for about a year, and at this time: at the end of each year (or before the new fiscal year), a large number of long-term holders will choose to sell a portion at the optimal tax window to lock in profits and take advantage of long-term tax rates. In the United States, encrypted assets are considered "property" and therefore capital gains tax is calculated when sold or exchanged. Among them, if the holding time is ≤ 1 year, short-term capital gains tax will be paid, up to 37%, while if the holding time is>1 year, long-term capital gains tax will be paid and preferential tax rates will be enjoyed, only ranging from 0%/15%/20%. In addition, in the United States, there is a so-called Tax Harvest Season every Q4 (especially November December), and many people will sell for cash at the end of the year to settle and reorganize their financial statements. At this time, facing the US government shutdown and the inability of the Treasury Department to allocate budgets, there was an extremely tight liquidity situation. As a result, selling pressure began to accumulate and forced the market to decline with thin buying. A new demand has emerged here: tax avoidance, which means hiding the flow of funds through ZEC. The IRS can only see the amount of BTC sold (taxable), but cannot track the subsequent flow of ZEC → the "source" of new BTC is cut off. The continuous rise of ZEC's shielded pool reflects this demand and enables ZEC to continue to soar even during market downturns (see Figure 3) This also explains why Bitcoin continues to decline and feels like it's going crazy even though DAT and ETFs haven't significantly shrunk, interest rate cuts, and liquidity expectations are still in place. So where will the drop end? After the previous analysis, you should be able to see that the probability is roughly between 8.8 and 9.1, and there are several reasons for this overall: 1. This is a gap in screenshot 2 that has not been filled for a long time. Now is the opportunity to fill it; 2. This part had huge transactions before, and the probability of falling below is very low; 3. The maximum drawdown of this bull market is basically around 30%, 126199 * 0.7=88339. Random analysis, let's take a look next.