Uh-oh, nearly 60% of big money now believes there won’t be a rate cut in December. Currently, the probability of no rate cut on the traditional CME platform has risen to 57.7%, compared to just 37.6% a week ago. Now, thanks to the big boss’s constant chatter, the market has completely desensitized—unless we see clear economic data or a dovish signal from the Fed. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform Polymarket, the bet on no rate cut is at 53%, slightly lower than the traditional CME platform. This could be because Polymarket has more crypto bulls, which makes the data slightly more optimistic compared to CME. As for the recent market drop, it feels like it’s already pricing in the December no-rate-cut scenario. If the market has already bottomed out ahead of time, then when the rate cut doesn’t happen, the negative impact might be less severe. For those looking to go long, you’ll have to wait and see if there’s a reversal moment during this period. Right now, the prediction data isn’t looking too optimistic. Bitcoin is completely following the movements of the U.S. stock market—when the stock market rises, Bitcoin makes a slight rebound; when the stock market falls, Bitcoin practically dives straight down.