As of the U.S. stock market close, the VIX closed at 26.42, still stuck in a very awkward middle range. This range often indicates that market panic has been triggered but hasn’t yet reached the level of 'despair' (above 30). In other words, this might not yet be the bottom of this downturn. This situation is very similar to what happened in March and April of 2025, as well as August to October of 2024. Back in March, due to tariffs, both the U.S. stock market and BTC dropped together. Then in April, panic surged because of U.S.-China tariffs, and Bitcoin hit a low of $75,000. The rebound was driven by an easing in U.S.-China trade relations. In August 2024, the situation was mainly dominated by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which led to extremely poor liquidity—very similar to now. At that time, the VIX also surged past 50 and then fluctuated between 22 and 28. The rebound was triggered by Trump’s presidential campaign announcement. So far, these two structures look very similar, but it feels more like March. The VIX hasn’t immediately surged past 30, but as time goes on, it could ignite investor panic and shoot past 50. This time, it’s likely tied to the Federal Reserve’s December monetary policy or December’s economic data. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates in December or if the economic data suggests a high probability of a U.S. recession, it means the VIX could enter the 30 or even 50 range for the third time. The corresponding market drop could be between 10% and 25%. Given this situation, I’m slightly adjusting my new bottom-fishing strategy. Instead of buying the dip based on price, I’ll base it on the VIX data—probably when it’s above 30. Bitget VIP, lower fees, bigger perks!