Bearish on ETH Outlook: Ethereum May Face Further Downside Risk

A series of technical indicators and on-chain data are flashing warning signals. As a cautious trader, I’m bearish on the market outlook. Here’s the basis of my analysis for Ethereum ETH ETH: 1. Weakening technicals: Last night, ETH failed to break above $3,100 and couldn’t hold above the 20-day moving average at $3,095. If it breaks below the critical $2,900 support level, it could accelerate downward to $2,624 or even $2,500. 2. On-chain data warnings: The total value locked (TVL) on the ETH network is dropping sharply, gas fees are decreasing, demand is weakening, and whales and institutions are turning cautious. 3. Weak capital flow: Recently, inflows into Ethereum ETFs have slowed. Staking activity is sluggish, with a queue of 459,000 ETH (approximately $848 million) waiting to be withdrawn, adding extra selling pressure. 4. Unfavorable macro environment: Signs of weakness are emerging in the U.S. job market, with some companies announcing layoffs exceeding 25,000 people. In such an environment, most investors tend to flee high-risk assets and turn to safer havens. To summarize my bearish view: While there are still reasons to be optimistic in the long term, in the short term, the bears are in control. My target is $2,624. If the market continues to deteriorate, $2,500 or even lower is not out of the question. Keep a close eye on the battle for the $2,900 support level! This is just my personal market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.