金色财经|12月 09, 2025 01:37
**[10x Research: Prediction Market Accuracy and Profitability Dominated by a Few Elites]**
According to a report by Jinse Finance, 10x Research shared the findings of its prediction market research on social media. The report highlights that while prediction markets appear to function as collective intelligence machines, data shows that accuracy and profitability are actually driven by a small group of informed elites. These elites are responsible for pricing probabilities, hedging risk exposures, and extracting premiums from long-term bets driven by retail investors.
The report analyzes that most users behave like "emotional bettors," trading discipline and advantage for dopamine and narratives, while a small group systematically profits from mispriced optimism, order flow imbalances, and late-stage convergence. The institution stated that as prediction markets are expected to expand significantly by 2026, now is the right time for in-depth research, as the easily accessible advantages will disappear once liquidity deepens. The third section will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and practical rules.
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