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律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|12月 18, 2025 06:35
BitUnix analyst: CPI credibility limited, Bank of England may cut interest rates, European Central Bank turns to wait-and-see, global policy differentiation intensifies, crypto market focuses on liquidity expectations BlockBeats News: On December 18th, the US November CPI will be released tonight. Due to the previous government shutdown and holiday factors, the collection time for inflation data has been significantly shortened and highly concentrated, making it difficult to fully reflect the inflation trend. The market expects the November CPI to be around 3.1% year-on-year, with a core CPI of around 3.0%. However, multiple institutions have warned that the reliability of the data is questionable, and tariff factors still pose potential upward pressure on commodity prices, so interpretation needs to be cautious. On the same evening, the Bank of England announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 3.75%. The recent rapid decline in inflation and the weakening of the economy and employment have significantly increased the possibility of Governor Bailey turning dovish. The market has priced this interest rate cut at over 90%, but it is also widely believed that the UK interest rate cut cycle is coming to an end and future policy space is limited. In contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to remain inactive. The Eurozone economic data exceeded expectations, inflation remained stable near the target, and the market focus is shifting from "whether to cut interest rates" to "whether easing is over", and even discussing the possibility of medium - to long-term interest rate hikes. However, the threshold for policy adjustments in the short term is still high. BitUnix analyst: Against the backdrop of distorted data in the United States, interest rate cuts in the United Kingdom, and a neutral hawkish trend in Europe, global monetary policy differentiation is becoming more pronounced. For the cryptocurrency market, short-term fluctuations will come more from macro expectation differences and liquidity pricing, rather than a single data itself, and it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the US dollar and changes in risk asset sentiment.
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Timeline

1月 11, 09:12The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January is low, market expectations are delayed.
1月 10, 07:04The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut falls below 5%
12月 31, 09:57The US dollar is likely to record its worst annual performance since 2017.
12月 31, 01:46Federal Reserve's 2026 Interest Rate Path Divergence Intensifies
12月 19, 14:25The default rate of U.S. companies has decreased, but the risk of re-default remains.
12月 18, 14:02U.S. CPI rises by 2.7%, lower than expected
12月 18, 13:35The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 has risen to 28.8%.
12月 17, 18:34The Federal Reserve begins purchasing government bonds and injecting liquidity
12月 17, 08:31Changes in on-chain chip accumulation for SOL from 12.9 to 12.17
12月 16, 14:57Analysis of U.S. November Non-Farm Payroll Data

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