Augur is one of the earliest prediction markets in the field of upper cycle encryption, with Joey as co-founder. From this perspective, he should be one of the people who have the deepest feelings about predicting market changes. Let's take a look at how he views predicting market changes: In a recent interview, he shared his predictions of market failures and successes: He believes that Augur faced three major issues in the early stages: low liquidity, poor user experience, and regulatory uncertainty, which ultimately led to a failure to match products and markets in a timely manner. At the same time, he believes that Augur has demonstrated the potential of native innovation in encryption, but has also exposed the gap from concept to practicality: the construction 10 years ago was an "innovation theater", and now it needs to focus on real needs. He believes that the lesson to be learned is that predicting the market requires addressing the "oracle problem" (real-world data input) and user barriers, rather than relying solely on decentralized concepts; In addition, founders should avoid "premature decentralization" and first build a centralized prototype testing market before going on chain. Joey believes that the main reason for Polyamarket's breakthrough now is real-time event prediction (such as elections, sports) and high liquidity design, which has attracted non encrypted users. For example, it aggregates information more accurately than traditional polls, and the surge in trading volume during the 2024 US election proves its value as an "information market". Is predicting the market just a gamble? His view is that predicting the market is no longer just niche gambling, but a risk hedging tool. For example, companies can use it for supply chain forecasting, surpassing the stereotype of 'just gambling'. This marks the shift of encryption from speculation to practicality. Similar to the stock market, there is speculation in the prediction market, but the core is information discovery. Joey believes that if regulators view it as pure gambling, they will miss out on economic benefits. In the future, the United States may require predictive markets to comply with KYC/AML and restrict anonymous trading; The EU and Asia policies are more friendly, but the US dominates global standards. Regulation is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, clarity will attract institutions, but excessive regulation (such as prohibiting betting on certain types of events) will stifle innovation. He suggested proactively cooperating with regulators in predicting market projects to avoid a "confrontational mode".