TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 31, 2025 09:01
Today, CME raised its margin for the second time within a week, covering all varieties of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. This news has once again smashed the momentum of silver, and looking at the daily chart, it can be seen that it has gone through two rounds of ups and downs recently. It just confirms the previous judgment, similar to Monday's nonsensical sudden decline, which will only come to a big one after several rehearsals due to various human factors. CME's increase in margin can be seen as a behavior similar to the central bank's interest rate hike, with the effect of increasing capital occupancy and reducing leverage, thus achieving a bottom cutting effect. The market also fell in response to the hammer. The exchange has implemented similar measures during the two silver crashes in history. Silver crash in 2011: It was also a sharp rise under the QE background. CME raised the margin five times in nine days, which directly punctured the foam, causing silver to plummet by 30% in several weeks. The Hunter Brothers Incident in 1980: The exchange introduced "Silver Rule 7" (allowing only closing positions and not opening new ones), in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, resulting in a sharp drop in silver prices. But this silver rise is indeed different from the past two times. The geopolitical and global landscape is facing unprecedented changes. Financial instruments can change the short-term supply and demand relationship, leading to price distortions, but the long-term trend cannot be changed by a single exchange. Ultimately, it still needs to be implemented in the actual supply and demand relationship. However, the foam caused by financial institutions is indeed likely to burst, and the stable price under normal supply and demand conditions is about 45-55.
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