Sexy casino, online real estate speculation Predicting US housing prices with Polymarket is like smelling the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Article: Curry, Deep Tide TechFlow Polymarket became famous in 2024 by betting on the US presidential election, and on the night Trump won, the trading volume broke records. Signed UFC in November 2025 and entered the sports betting industry. On January 5, 2026, they officially announced a new gameplay: Gambling on housing prices. Polymarket has also opened up interest rates on mortgage loans before, but that was a derivative bet on Federal Reserve policies. This time is different, just bet on whether the housing price index of a certain city will rise or fall. The partner is Parcl, Solana's property data protocol project on the blockchain. The gameplay is also very simple: choose a city and predict whether its housing price index will rise or fall next month. The currently open markets include Austin, San Francisco, Miami, and New York, in addition to a national average index. No down payment, no need to apply for a loan, no need to argue with intermediaries. Bet $100, double if guessed right, zero if guessed wrong. The CMO of Polymarket said that real estate is the world's largest asset class, worth $40 trillion, and should become a "first-class citizen" in predicting the market. The entrance fee for a $400 trillion casino has now dropped to: A cup of coffee money. However, this is not a new invention. In 2008, the British gambling exchange Betfair opened a trading session for a housing price collapse. It goes without saying what happened in the world that year. At that time, Wall Street was playing CDS, MBS, CDO, a bunch of abbreviations that ordinary people couldn't understand, but they all bought orders for the subprime crisis. Now, Polymarket has translated it into human language: Miami's housing prices will rise or fall before February 1st, you choose one. From the cooperation statement, the settlement data is provided by Parcl and updated daily, which is faster than traditional housing price indices. Each market has a dedicated settlement page that clearly states the final values, historical trends, and calculation methods. Transparent, open, and traceable on the chain. Sounds great. But we took a look at the current market data, and the most liquid market cap in Los Angeles is only $17000, while in New York it is only $1600. The trading volume was even more dismal, with a total of $10 traded after two days online in New York. Everyone is very enthusiastic about betting on the president and betting on housing prices, but it seems like they haven't figured out how to play yet. This is more like an amusement park for early players, or rather: A hunting ground for whales. Parcl received two rounds of financing in 2022, with investors including Dragonfly, Coinbase Ventures, and Solana Ventures, totaling over $11 million. Their previous products were more aggressive: long short property index, up to 10 times leverage, perpetual contracts. You read it right, real estate speculation can also leverage. After collaborating with Polymarket, the gameplay has become more gentle. Without leverage and perpetuity, it's just a simple binary option: up or down, settled at maturity. Polymarket has also been running wildly in the past two years. In 2024, the valuation is $1.2 billion. By the end of 2025, ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced plans to invest $2 billion, with a valuation of nearly $9 billion. From betting on presidents to betting on boxing to betting on housing prices, the categories are becoming wider and wider. What's the next step, I don't know. Gambling on divorce rate? Gambling on fertility rate? How many months can the milk tea shop downstairs of the American residents last? As long as there is a data source, everything can be manipulated. Previously, we also saw on chain analysis data that nearly 70% of users on Polymarket are losing money, with profits concentrated in a very small number of wallets. This ratio is similar to cryptocurrency trading and stock trading. The difference is that the election result is a deterministic event, and the right and wrong bets are clear at a glance. The housing price data is different, with lag, noise, seasonal fluctuations, and methodological controversies. You think you are making judgments, but in fact, you are playing a game against statistical standards. The logic of buying a real house is: a 30% down payment, a 30-year loan, and a monthly payment that may be higher than your salary, but at least the house is yours. The logic of buying a house in Polymarket is: bet $100, wait for a month, either double or return to zero, the house is not yours, it has never been. Which one do you think is more like gambling? In the 2008 round of real estate financialization, the subprime crisis exploded once. This round, retail investors can also come to the table. That's really progress. Original link: https://www. (techflowpost.com)/zh-CN/article/29816