PANews丨APP全面升级
PANews丨APP全面升级|1月 08, 2026 09:38
Analyze the historical data of 295000 predicted markets on Polymarket and reveal six key truths about their liquidity distribution: Short term market liquidity shortage: Nearly 23% of market cycles are less than one day, with over 63% of 24-hour trading volume being zero, indicating a worrying liquidity situation. Similar to the MEME coin market, most short-term contracts lack funding participation. 2/Long term market attracts large capital: Although the number of markets with cycles greater than 30 days is small (only 28700), the average liquidity is as high as $450000, indicating that large funds are more inclined to layout long-term forecasts, especially in the US political category, with an average liquidity of $811000. 3/Polarization in the sports market: Sports forecasts account for about 40% of daily activity, but the average trading volume in the ultra short term (<1 day) and ultra long term (>30 days) markets is 1.32 million and 16.59 million US dollars respectively, while the trading volume in the medium-term market (7-30 days) is relatively low, reflecting user preferences for "instant results" or "season betting". 4/New category faces cold start dilemma: In the US real estate forecasting market, although the cycle is long and the certainty is high, due to strong professionalism and low volatility, it faces the dilemma of retail investors watching and professional players lacking liquidity to compete with the market. 5/Obvious market differentiation: A few top events (such as markets with trading volume>$10 million) contributed 47% of the total trading volume, while the vast majority of small and medium-sized markets accounted for only 7.54% of the trading volume, with liquidity highly concentrated in top narrative events. 6/Rise of Geopolitical Blocks: The active contracts in the geopolitical market account for 29.7%, the highest among all categories, indicating that the sector is rapidly adding new contracts and has become a focus of user attention. Overall, the liquidity of Polymarket is concentrated in markets that can provide immediate feedback (such as sports short-term) or deep game space (such as political long-term), while categories lacking narrative and volatility are difficult to survive, and the platform is evolving into a professional financial tool rather than a generalized prediction platform.
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