[Low Probability of Fed Rate Cut in January, Market Expects Rate Cuts Delayed to Mid-Year] The research report by Guotai Haitong pointed out that in December, the U.S. labor market showed a state of low hiring and low layoffs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.4%, interrupting the previous upward trend. However, the growth in new jobs continued to slow, and subsequent annual revisions may lower the figures. Since the unemployment rate has not risen further and the risk of a labor market stall remains low, the Federal Reserve still has room to pause rate cuts after three consecutive rate cuts. According to CME data, following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market estimates only a 5% probability of a rate cut in January. For 2026, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice, with the timing delayed to June and September. Attention will also focus on the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.