If we want to review the logical thread we analyzed in the past week, it's actually quite simple: 1. The conclusion drawn is that the 'supply side' has weakened due to the significant decrease in distribution scale caused by the long-term holder's achievement of a break even point. (Figure 1) Tweet link: https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2009125587588374942 2. Through the bottoming out and slight rebound of First Buyers' holdings, Conviction Buyers actively increased their holdings, but the BTC balance on the Binance exchange remained high, leading to the conclusion that the "demand side" has but is not sufficient; (Figure 2) Tweet link: https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2008828070506164399 https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2008383898313719980 Therefore, the overall framework of the current BTC market is in a weak equilibrium state of "emotional repair+low selling pressure+basic demand". This is from the perspective of emotions and supply-demand relationships. 3. By analyzing the key positions of Gamma risk exposure in options and the movement and accumulation of URPD chips, it can be concluded that there is limited downward space in the short term and less upward resistance. In such a small space, what is lacking is an external stimulus. (Figure 3) Tweet link: https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2010517082077630932 4. I don't know the specific conditions that stimulate it, but I know that it is necessary for "US regional funds" to actively participate (such as last night). It is not enough for the US to rely solely on Asian regional funds without throwing cups. However, we have observed that the US dollar value of the average single transaction volume on the BTC chain is rapidly increasing, indicating that large funds are beginning to return after the holiday. (Figure 4) Tweet link: https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2010255538437902620 https://((((((x.com))))))/Murphychen888/status/2010592579839316377 Last night, BTC broke through the resistance level of $92000, driven by spot support, contract liquidity, and short gamma structure, sweeping through the two key positions of 9.4w and 9.6w above. From the performance perspective, it fully conforms to our analysis and inference above, proving that the current market is operating according to such a logical mainline. This is also the reason why I have always maintained the view that "although there is no bull rally, the short-term rebound is not over". Next, BTC will encounter a truly strong resistance level: $98000; This is the current average cost line for all short-term holders and also the boundary between bull and bear phases. Prior to this, I believed that BTC would continue to maintain a pace of two in, one out, or three in, two out, with no short-term momentum to soar and turn the tide, nor the danger of suddenly falling off a cliff. However, the higher the resistance, the stronger the resistance. Relying solely on "low selling pressure" is not enough. Price rebound and selling pressure will emerge, and the emergence of "strong demand" is also necessary to continue driving it forward. ---------------------------------------------- A friend gave feedback that the data and indicators I update every day are different, too much and too complex. Actually, it may be that you haven't found the right method. Due to the graphic and textual limitations of Twitter, I have to break down the viewpoint and argumentation process on a logical main line into multiple tweets to write, and you need to read them continuously and connect them together to understand, rather than just reading one article independently. Of course, I accept my friend's suggestion and will take some time in the future to write analysis and review, combining the previous and subsequent threads to summarize and summarize, helping everyone to more clearly sort out the impact and connection between different data, and providing better reference and ideas for our transactions. ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits