I used to lose money because I didn't understand it, but now it's because the world is too fucking chaotic! Actually, I already had a bad feeling over the weekend. After failing to hit 9w8 last week, Da Bing has been continuously declining for a week, The amount of energy is also significantly shrinking. From a linear perspective, it doesn't seem like a breakthrough, more like waiting for a reason to go down. And this reason soon appeared together. Starting from the weekend, geopolitics and macroeconomics have become almost simultaneously off. Firstly, the "European version of the Eight Nation Alliance" entered Greenland, Following that, Kawako directly opened up—— Who dares to resist? Unified tax increase. More importantly, Trump is not the only one talking in the United States. Including Besent, various officials have stepped forward to support the "recapture", This is basically equivalent to a signal: This is not a last-minute idea, but a radical approach that has been unified across the entire government. On Polymarket, The probability of reclaiming Greenland before this year has been directly reduced to 21%. This number itself is not important, The important thing is that the market has started to take this matter seriously. When territorial disputes, tariffs, and trade wars are used as reusable tools, Risk assets will definitely be dealt with first. At the same time, market expectations for the Federal Reserve are also changing. The probability of Kevin Walsh being elected as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve has been pushed to 62%, Hassett dropped to 17%. This means that the previous default idea is being revised: It's not 'sooner or later there will be a rate cut', But rather, 'no one guarantees to provide a safety net for risky assets'. Walsh represents financial discipline, not market sentiment. This does not mean raising interest rates immediately, But it is enough to slow down the high leverage market first. For encryption, the signal is actually very clear: The water didn't come so quickly, Leverage must be withdrawn first. The external environment has not given the market much breathing space. The Japanese yen continues to weaken and has hit the inflation red line of the Bank of Japan, Early interest rate hikes are being seriously discussed. On the other hand, in the United States, the timing of interest rate cuts has been pushed back and forth, It's becoming more and more like something after June. One is that the last loose anchor in the world is starting to loosen, One is to continue to observe the source of maximum liquidity. The water didn't come, But uncertainty has already squeezed forward in line. The situation of CLARITY has actually been reflected in the stock price in advance. Last Friday, Coinbase and Robinhood had already experienced a decline, Not the kind that follows the market, But it was a clear smash with regulatory sentiment. The market is now trading more than just 'bill extensions', But rather a worse expectation: Regulatory consensus is retreating rather than moving forward. Even rumors have begun to circulate that, The White House is very dissatisfied with Coinbase's fickleness, We are considering withdrawing the bill directly. Regardless of whether it is true or false, But being able to discuss it seriously already indicates the problem. On the Middle East side, Iran is still the one that cannot be bypassed. Trump did cancel the air raid this time, But the direction did not change as a result. Within the US official system, It is almost an open consensus to take action against Iran, The remaining uncertainty is actually only time. When to hit How to fight Who will take action first, There is still room for game. But this matter itself is rarely taken as a hypothesis anymore. In this context, Israel is more of a front-end role. On January 19th, the probability of Israel launching an attack on Lebanon was pushed to 77%, More like an overflow of the Iran issue than an isolated matter. This level of uncertainty does not require a truly comprehensive outbreak, As long as it is close enough, The market will enter risk off ahead of schedule. So today's drop, Rather than calling it 'Black Monday', It's more like a concentrated reaction. It's not a bearish sentiment, But many risks that were originally overlooked, delayed, and pretended to be invisible, They were placed together on the table at the same time. But even if the market crashes today I don't think this is a bear market either. I don't think this is a repeat of 2022. Even in a bull market, a market correction is reasonable The four-year cycle is no longer valid. ETF、 Institutional and national level games, We have pushed encryption to a completely different stage. 2026 is not 2022. In the short term, it will be chaotic, difficult to earn, and awkward, But the logic of Changniu has not disappeared. Just this round, It's no longer an era where you can win by closing your eyes, relying on faith, and holding heavy positions. If you have been feeling particularly uncomfortable lately, That's not just your problem. Now may be the most chaotic era after World War II, and everything may have to be paid for by us