Hai Ge observes daily 20260122: core viewpoint The current market presents a pattern of "bearish dominance but structural support". Among the 32 indicators, there are 16 bearish indicators and only 10 bullish indicators, indicating a clear advantage of bearish forces (especially in terms of macroeconomic pressure and capital outflows). However, the increase in holdings of whales on the chain and some technical signals still provide partial support. My strategy: Strictly control the position, prioritize defense, and wait for key signals to become clear before deciding direction. In the short term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of falling below the $88000 support level, but if there is a macro turning point (such as the expectation of interest rate cuts recovering), the momentum of oversold rebound may quickly gather. ✍️ Breaking down the power of long and short positions Short dominant areas (16 items) 1. Intensive macro pressure: the expectation of interest rate reduction is delayed, CPI/non-agricultural data is empty, treasury bond yields are stronger, and risk assets are suppressed; 2. Continuous outflow of funds: significant net outflow of ETFs, increased net inflow of exchanges, and negative growth of stablecoins weaken purchasing power; 3. Technical resistance strengthening: SMA120 moving average suppression, bearish pressure level ahead, weak price structure; 4. Emotional cooling across the board: Both institutional and retail investors have weak enthusiasm, and the liquidity of counterfeit currency funds has shrunk. Long support (10 items) 1. Confidence on the chain has not collapsed: holding 100+BTC addresses continues to increase holdings, and long-term chip locking is good; 2. Local technical signals: VDD warning indicators are bullish, and the 7-day candlestick still receives support; 3. Structural opportunity: Bitcoin's market value proportion increases, and funds concentrate on mainstream assets for hedging. Uncertainty (6 items) The market stage, knockoff season index, NUPL profit and loss status and other directions are unclear, indicating that the market is searching for a new equilibrium point. Key signal monitoring 1. Downward risk trigger point: If it falls below 88000 (weekly low), it may explore 85000- $86000 (miner cost zone and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level); Confirmation signal: ETF net outflow for 3 consecutive days+continuous strengthening of the US dollar index DXY. 2. Signals to be observed for rebound: Breaking through $92000 (original support turning resistance) and stabilizing, accompanied by increased trading volume (150% increase in daily trading volume compared to 20 days). Macro improvement: such as the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals or inflation data falling beyond expectations. 3. Risk of counterfeit currency linkage: If the Shanzhai seasonal index weakens, it is necessary to be vigilant about further withdrawal of funds from small market value assets. Operational framework 1. Position adjustment: The spot position has been reduced to 30%, with 70% cash retained. Reserve core positions (BTC/ETH) and clear positions in altcoin trading. Zero the leverage position to avoid liquidation risks under increased volatility. 2. Batch bottom reading conditions: Conservative: Approaching $85000 (with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the 2025 bull market) and an RSI<30, build positions in batches of 5%. Radical type: Increase volume to recover $92000 and maintain a stable 4-hour chart. When the retracement is not broken, take a light position and try long. 3. Risk control bottom line: Stop loss rule: The single loss shall not exceed 1.5% of the total funds. If unable to maintain a stable position of $88000 within 3 days, further reduce the position to 20%. Summary: The current market is dominated by macroeconomic and financial factors, and although there is support on the chain, it is difficult to reverse the decline alone. Discipline is higher than prediction, and cash is also a position. (Note: The viewpoint is strictly based on the status of 32 indicators and does not constitute investment advice.)