The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman has changed, according to today's data from Polymarket. The probability of Rick Rieder being elected as the chairman of the Federal Reserve has skyrocketed to 54%, far ahead of the second ranked Walsh (31%), while at the beginning of the year, Rieder's probability of winning was only 4%. Why have there been new changes? 1. It was mainly because Trump said that Rieder was "very impressive" two days ago and had a final interview with him. This was seen as a signal of Trump's favor towards Rieder, quickly driving up market expectations. 2. Rick Rieder is a senior executive at BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, known for his expertise in fixed income investments. He currently serves as the Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock, leading over $7 trillion in fixed income assets managed by BlackRock, which has a significant impact on the bond market. 3. Rick Rieder's policy proposition: 1) Doubt about high interest rates: High interest rates may exacerbate rather than suppress inflation. Rieder has repeatedly stated that the current high interest rate environment (when Fed Funds Rate>5%) has a restraining effect on certain economic sectors (such as interest rate sensitive commodity sectors), but has limited impact on service-oriented economic sectors and may even backfire. He believes that high interest rates will increase the interest burden on the government, businesses, and households, leading to increased fiscal pressure, worsening income inequality, and potentially driving up service inflation through cost transmission mechanisms. 2) Support a looser monetary policy He tends to lean towards a more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve, especially when there are signs of softening in the labor market. Recently, it has been stated that labor market concerns have become the primary focus of the Federal Reserve, and inflation is no longer the main issue ("inflation is yesterday's problem"). He believes that the Federal Reserve should prioritize supporting employment and economic growth. Previously, it was publicly suggested that the federal funds rate should be lowered to around 3% (instead of the current high level), and support a faster path of interest rate cuts (such as the possibility of a one-time 50bps cut in 2025). 3) Emphasizing transparency, fiscal responsibility, and avoiding 'uncontrolled printing of money' Rick Rieder emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should promote transparency, fiscal responsibility, and end the practice of 'recycling money printing' He criticized some monetary policies in the past for relying too much on quantitative easing, and believed that traditional economic models have become ineffective in describing current market and policy demands, requiring more flexible data-driven methods. 4) A pragmatic view on the policy tools of the Federal Reserve Rick Rieder believes that interest rate policy-making is becoming more complex and requires a comprehensive consideration of labor markets, consumer spending, AI driven productivity changes, and global factors. Rieder appears more like a "trader's Fed" candidate for the position of Federal Reserve chairman, emphasizing liquidity support, asset price stability, and avoiding excessive tightening, rather than strictly adhering to the academic 2% inflation target. Doubt the rigidity of the 2% inflation target and believe that policies should be more flexible in responding to signals of actual economic softening. It seems that these views have won the favor of Trump, but does Trump trust a Wall Street executive who has not been closely connected before? Worth pondering