Gold and silver have become little sweethearts, Bitcoin has become Mrs. Bull The hardest thing in this world is not to go bankrupt, but to make friends rich. The market has been like this these days: Originally, everyone was falling well, I don't feel uncomfortable with the weak trend of the cryptocurrency market, after all, it has been like this from last year to this year, But why are gold and silver rising again after two days of hard work, Unfortunately, at this time, Da Bing is still the least competitive, It started to fall early Monday morning. Watching this scene makes me feel even more uncomfortable Isn't it the agreed upon digital gold? Didn't you say something like Bitcoin or Litecoin? The current reality is more like: Gold and silver are sweet treats, while Bitcoin has become Mrs. Bull. This is the most realistic state of the market recently: Anything But Crypto（ABC） 1、 The most direct trigger for this round of decline: tariffs+government shutdown risk What truly ignites market sentiment are two things: one ️⃣ The United States threatens to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods This is a signal of extreme trade conflict. Market pricing immediately: growth risk+inflation risk+political uncertainty. two ️⃣ The probability of a government shutdown in the United States this month has risen to 75% Once the shutdown occurs, fiscal expenditures will be frozen, Billions of dollars have been locked into TGA, Equivalent to directly withdrawing liquidity from the market. For the cryptocurrency industry, this is the most direct bearish sentiment. 2、 Japan's hawkish expectations are heating up, and the US and Japan may work together to save the yen, causing liquidity to be repriced Although Japan has not really raised interest rates, But the market is already trading in one direction: The Bank of Japan is more hawkish. The yield of Japanese bonds has risen, The New York Federal Reserve has begun to hint at the possibility of intervening in the yen, The expectation of a coordinated stable exchange rate between the United States and Japan is being priced. In the past few years: Borrowing Japanese yen → Buying US Treasury bonds → Buying stocks → Buying Bitcoin. Now this chain is starting to reverse: Sell US dollar assets → exchange back for Japanese yen → deleverage. Essentially, there is only one sentence: The liquidity of the US dollar is being recovered. The first asset to come under pressure is always cryptocurrency. 3、 The money didn't leave, it just bypassed the cryptocurrency circle and went to gold and silver The most heart wrenching thing is: The money hasn't disappeared at all. The gold reserves of central banks around the world have exceeded 4 trillion US dollars, For the first time, it has surpassed the reserve of US Treasury bonds. Silver is even crazier, breaking through $109. The White House discusses establishing a strategic reserve of silver, Legislators propose a scale of 2.5 billion US dollars, Saudi Arabia has also expressed its intention to allocate silver. The reality scene is very absurd: The central bank buys gold, The state hoards silver, Coin circle speculation on Meme. In this macro round: Gold and silver are sweet treats, Bitcoin has become Mrs. Bull. 4、 ETFs are bleeding, Davos is shouting orders, only micro strategies are really buying? Last week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $1.3 billion. ETFs were originally the engine of a bull market, Now it has become a pressure relief valve. On the other hand, at the Davos Forum, there was a collective promotion of encryption: AI + Crypto、RWA、Tokenization。 Words speak of faith, I am reducing my holdings. It is inevitable to raise doubts: Is this calling for orders to coordinate with shipment? Now looking back at the on chain data, Those who are truly continuing to buy BTC, Almost only micro strategies remain. The country buys gold, Institutions sell BTC, Only one listed company is serving as a Knight of Faith. 5、 This week, there is also earnings week and geopolitical conflicts that are weighing on risk appetite This week is not just FOMC, There are also a bunch of financial reports from tech giants. There is only one consensus among large funds: Reduce positions, wait and see, don't bet on direction. Meanwhile, the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East. War risk re enters the pricing system. When local conflicts arise, Funds only do three things: Buy gold, buy silver, and sell high volatility assets. 6、 More brutal within the cryptocurrency circle: Mainstream coins bleed, Meme becomes an emotional outlet On one hand, BTC and ETH are experiencing a decline, Meme twice a hundred times in two days. This indicates that the market has shifted from: Investment → Gambling. When macro narratives fail, When ETFs no longer invest money, Existing funds can only go to the most stimulating places to find feelings. This is not a bull market, This is a post apocalyptic carnival after repression. 7、 Is Bitcoin finished? From the perspective of encryption practitioners: The problem is not that the logic of Bitcoin is broken, But it has not yet been recognized by the market as a 'safe haven asset'. The current positioning is very clear: Gold=National Hedge Tool Silver=Strategic Resource Bitcoin=High volatility risk asset But this matter itself, We are paving the way for the next step. When the central bank uses gold to hedge system risks, The market will eventually ask: Is there an asset, Not belonging to any country, Can't it be randomly issued? The answer will not always be metal. 8、 Summary The current encryption is indeed 'Mrs. Niu'. Gold and silver are the popular little sweethearts. short-term: Tariff conflict+government shutdown risk+hawkish expectations in Japan+US Japan intervention in the yen+ETF outflow+earnings week+geopolitical conflict Not friendly to the cryptocurrency industry. metaphase: Debt, liquidity, and political instability will not disappear, They will eventually push the narrative back Non sovereign assets. The current decline is more like a qualifying match: Who can survive until the next round, Who can become the true 'digital gold'. The market is trading faith in the cruelest way possible. And history tells us: Every change in asset status, It all happens when everyone least believes in it.