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星球日报
星球日报|Jan 27, 2026 16:21
[Probability of Fed Holding Rates Steady in January Rises to 99% on Polymarket] Odaily Planet Daily reports that information from the Polymarket website indicates that the prediction market for the Federal Reserve's January rate decision shows traders now estimate a roughly 99% probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged. In contrast, the probabilities for a 25 basis point rate cut, a 50 basis point rate cut, and a rate hike of more than 25 basis points are all below 1%. The cumulative trading volume for related contracts has exceeded $560 million. Previously, 'Fed Whisperer' Nick Timiraos (https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/newsflash/466084) reported that Fed officials this week are expected to hold rates steady for the first time since three consecutive rate cuts starting last September, and the path to resuming rate cuts remains unclear.
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Timeline

Feb 26, 13:54Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes a rate cut of about 1 percentage point is needed.
Feb 25, 04:30BTC is stuck at $64-67k, the market is entering a macro paradigm shift phase.
Feb 24, 15:23AI triggers massive changes, potentially leading to a rise in the neutral interest rate in the short term
Feb 24, 15:00AI triggers intergenerational shifts in the U.S. labor market
Feb 23, 17:01The main theme of the U.S. economy returns to the combination of high inflation and high interest rates.
Feb 23, 13:05Waller supports a rate cut in March or keeping rates unchanged
Feb 22, 22:01The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 95.9%.
Feb 21, 21:48Trump raises global tariffs to 15%
Feb 20, 15:40A large number of sell orders for BTC appeared on BINANCE
Feb 18, 19:21Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal differences over the threshold for rate cuts

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