律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|2月 02, 2026 11:19
Analyst: The index shows that the market has entered a "surrender" phase, and there is still a risk of further decline According to BlockBeats news, on February 2nd, analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the "Bitcoin Futures Fund Flow Index" combines price dynamics with derivative fund flows (buying volume+changes in open contracts). Since last Friday, the fund flow index has plummeted from around 50% to the critical 7.1%, at the lower limit of the index's scale range and the extreme value of the past month. The continuously marked price trend since January 28th confirms the ongoing bear market state. The key point is that since January 30th, the index has fallen below the 45% threshold, which, according to the model definition, marks the entry into the bear market boundary. In history, a reading of 7.1% usually corresponds to the surrender zone of the market. To achieve a state transition, the index needs to rise above 45% and the price tends to stabilize. Prior to this, any rebound technically remained a repair within the bear market structure. And another index, the Bitcoin Local Stress Index, integrates volatility, funding rates, and leverage levels to form a comprehensive stress indicator. During the sell-off on the evening of January 31st (Friday) when the price fell below $78000, the index soared to a peak of 92.5. Throughout the weekend, the index remained in a 'tail risk alert' state - indicating that all pressure valves (downward trend+increased volatility+biased capital flow) were activated simultaneously. The current reading of 73 is still in the 'high' range. In history, when the index broke through 90, it often coincided with local price bottoms. If LSI breaks through 80 again under a new round of pressure, it will indicate the continuation of the waterfall decline. The two indicators together depict a picture: the capital flow index is at an extremely low level, while the local pressure index is at its peak. This is precisely the characteristic of market surrender - when pressure reaches its limit, the market begins to try to absorb liquidity shocks.
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