The possibility of a spring market crash was first discussed in the middle of the month and later in the year, which posed a test for the market. Beware of the possibility of a "spring market crash" coming before the spring market, as the currency market reacted faster. Several recent signals: 1. Macroscopically, as discussed earlier, considering Powell's three interest rate meetings before the end of his term as one, there will be at most one interest rate cut or none before May. Liquidity is slowly recovering, and bank reserves are still below $3 trillion. Suspend interest rate cuts in January and most likely in March. It is difficult to see significant changes in the pace of the Federal Reserve in a short period of time Recently, the most important focus for geopolitical individuals is not Iran but Canada. Last Thursday, I saw high-level reports of US officials secretly meeting with right-wing separatist groups in Canada, attempting to push for Alberta's independence. The profound impact of this matter is actually quite significant. Greenland is only an autonomous territory of Denmark (with a certain degree of autonomy), while Alberta is a completely Canadian territory. If this is done, it will indeed further sow discord within Europe and America. Kani has already taken the lead in raising the banner of moderate strength self-reliance. 2. Last week's Microsoft financial report and today's AMD financial report both showed zero tolerance for financial data in the market: investors are more concerned about the growth pace, marginal changes in future guidance, and possible cost/share pressures in AI scale competition. In a high expectation environment, any points that do not completely exceed expectations or significantly increase expense items may amplify selling. 3. OpenAI's game with Nvidia in the financing process, Oracle's half stock issuance and half bond issuance financing (also with many surprises), today Oracle announced the filing of a $20 billion stock financing plan with the SEC, which can alleviate market concerns about its cash flow. If OpenAI can ultimately complete a $100 billion financing, it will truly boost market confidence. 4. Another one is the latest January global fund manager survey conducted by Bank of America that we talked about last night. The cash positions held by fund managers have dropped to a historical low of 3.2%, indicating that the bullets have been fired. Then the short positions of the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF also dropped to the lowest level in the past eight years, and there was not much fuel left for upward short selling. The US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, has been sideways for three months, but at a deeper level, it still lacks a strong upward catalyst. In essence, the main AI of the US stock market still needs some time to form a larger range of iterations. Normally, if you can't break through upwards, then look for support downwards. For individual stocks with good performance but not explosive enough, then kill the valuation. If the performance is flawed, then kill the performance. It is expected that the overall market will adjust from a small to a medium level, but in fact, it would be better to adjust further. The valuation is in place, it's not so expensive anymore, it's another good opportunity to get on the car. Of course, there may be many arguments: AI peaked, and the collapse of the Internet foam similar to that in 2000 will come and go forever. I personally think that ignoring these comments, from the perspective of actual industry progress and performance, it is neither excessive FOMO nor excessive fear. This is just a setback in the development of AI, a normal adjustment that needs to wait for business evolution to catch up after a significant surge in stock prices. Because AI is still evolving rapidly: 1) AI agents will explode on a large scale this year, which should be a deterministic trend. 2) OpenAI's new round of funding of billions of dollars is highly likely to be secured, and it is currently a game against several investors. When the financing is finalized, it should be a strong catalyst. Although there are still doubts about its commercialization, there is undoubtedly ample food and resources. 3) Most of the financial reports so far have been good, with no major issues with profits or EPS. The market expectations are just too high. 4) Also, in early January, we talked about Trump's policies this year, and the economy, finance and finance are the foundation of the market. All of these determine that this is not a big bear in the US stock market, but a normal adjustment from small to medium level in the development process. After adjustment, it is also to accumulate strength for the next wave of market trends. The above mainly refers to the US stock market, and as for the Big Dipper, it is expected to reach a bottom in this adjustment following the US stock market, at least for a period of time.