Couple things about Iran for market participants: - Iran is nothing like Iraq. The population is united against the regime, highly educated, pro-democracy and been ready for decades to transition to a free country. There is already a consensus candidate for managing the transition period. - IRGC always talks big and does little when real force shows up (case in point: they did nothing to avenge the death of their commander when Trump killed him). This pattern has been observed for decades; they chicken out when outnumbered. - They have virtually no air defense, and an old, crumbling military that will fold in a matter of days, especially given the lack of support (and likely sabotage) from the residents. - Their missiles and drones can sting, but that is exactly why a massive number of US assets are positioned in the region to destroy them. - Their oil is mostly going to China and they have a very crumbling infrastructure operating well below capacity. - Conclusion: If a full on war with the regime begins, markets should not worry. The tail risk is very limited -- they will fold quickly and their population will take over soon. A hostile terror-funding regime will be replaced with a modern, pro-West democracy with good relationships with neighbors. Terror funds will stop. Russia will weaken. Middle east will enjoy lasting peace and the US will be able to shoft focus away from the region. Further restrictions on Iranian energy exports will be lifted in a matter of months, leading to more energy abundance and lower inflation worldwide. This is a battle to buy not to panic about.(Sina 🗝️⚡ BI Report)