This is the Bitcoin/Gold chart Currently, RSI is at its historical lowest level Bitcoin peaked relative to gold in December 2024 It has since been declining for 14 months The historical three major corrections All lasted around 14 months 2013.11 to 2015.1 2017.12 to 2019.2 2021.4 to 2022.6 The rhythm is almost identical Now, many people are saying the bear market has just begun Because the dollar price hit a new high in October 2025 The issue is That new high was driven by price inflation under the dollar system Gold and silver surged simultaneously BTC just followed the liquidity-driven price hike If you use gold as the anchor The trend has already weakened long ago RSI has been pressed into its historical lowest range The price structure is following a complete 14-month decline model The logic is simple: 1/ The time dimension has already completed the typical bear market length 2/ Momentum indicators have reached historical extremes 3/ Yet sentiment is still betting on further breakdowns The market never rewards the direction of unanimous sentiment The real point of contention right now is only one: Is this the later stage of the bear market Or the starting point of structural failure? If history continues to hold true The odds favor the opposite direction If history fails It would be the first time breaking the three-cycle statistics The chips betting on bearishness now Are essentially betting on history failing for the first time It’s indeed possible But the probability isn’t high.