Good piece. Crisis and conflict usually drive a long bond bid, but I think the signals are crossed because this admin has openly stated desire to grow military spending +$500B, just asked Congress for $50B urgently for Iran, the cyclical economy has recently surprised hot, commodity supplies are being choked, and capital controls are increasingly being threatened to direct savings toward industries of sovereign importance, here and in Europe. I think these all provide nasty cross currents for the long end. Probably some additional factors I failed to mention.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)