In yesterday's tweet, we mentioned that when the balance of BTC in the exchange continues to decline, the temporary absorption of spot demand can help BTC maintain a volatile or weak rebound trend in the short term. If it is a weak rebound path, the first resistance that BTC is about to encounter is the position of the green line in the "MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Range" (-0.5 std) - $74000 (Figure 1). From a historical perspective, whenever BTC falls below the green line, it represents the second stage of the bear market, and it is difficult for a rebound to effectively break through this probability range until the bear market ends. If we switch to the perspective of group cost, BTC can currently stand relatively stable on the ultra short term chip cost line of "holding 1w-1m", indicating that the funds that have been buying at the bottom recently are no longer sensitive to prices, and reducing selling pressure is necessary to stabilize the price (Figure 2). Above this is the average turnover cost for long-term holders of 1y-2y, currently $78880; There are a total of 242w chips accumulated here, and based on the current overall demand level, I personally think it is difficult to pass smoothly in one go. In addition, on the exercise date of March 20th, the options market was in a Long Gamma state at $74000, with a current Gamma Exposure (GEX) of $180 million (Figure 3). We know that in the Long Gamma state, when the price drops, MM wants to buy BTC; Price increase, to sell BTC for hedging; Therefore, Gamma gravity is formed. In summary, my personal expectation for a weak rebound path is between $74000 and $79000. Within this range, I may find an opportunity to try a high short position. The stop loss position is clear, and once it breaks through $79000, it indicates that my previous judgment was wrong, so I will stop the loss in a timely manner. If it doesn't arrive, then continue to patiently buy spot goods at a medium low level in the downward trend. In short, it's about minimizing operations and waiting for opportunities with high certainty.