Finally, I spent the quietest and calmest day in over a month, enjoying the peace brought by the ceasefire. As previously reported, Pakistan has made very detailed and high-level arrangements for this negotiation, with the JF-17 fighter squadron directly entering Iranian airspace for long-range escort. Refueling planes, early warning aircraft, and transport planes are fully equipped to ensure the safety of the Iranian delegation and prevent Israeli attacks. Pakistan, due to its transcendent status, 1 Winning the air battle last year proved military strength The relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United States is relatively good and has a foundation of trust. This move Obtained sufficient diplomatic discourse power and economic support from Saudi Arabia, enhancing its international status It should be noted that this meeting is a bilateral meeting between the United States and Iran, and Israel is not included in it. At present, both the US delegation and the Iranian delegation have arrived in Pakistan, but they need to meet with the Pakistani Prime Minister separately before the direct meeting between the two sides. At present, both sides have completed their meeting with Pakistan and started formal talks. The US delegation was led by Iran's previously named Vice President Wans, but Iran's disliked Weitkov and Kushner also went. Moreover, Trump had said half jokingly that the credit for the success of the talks was due to his failure, which was all his fault. It's like asking the Running Overlord to kill Tang Monk and his disciples. The Iranian delegation is led by Speaker Karibav and Foreign Minister Araghzi (you may remember that early last week, Trump side had contact with the Speaker but was denied rumors. Next time, you can refer to the transmission channel of such news as early signal selective acquisition) At present, negotiations are focused on four major issues: 1. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz 2. Enriched uranium and ballistic missile processing 3. Lebanon Hezbollah ceasefire 4. Iran freezes assets and eases sanctions. And none of these four major issues can be resolved in just one or two days of short-term talks. This negotiation is not only a rare opportunity for Iran to gain international support and speak out globally, but also a joint decision of the US and Israel's hard demand for military readiness, stable economy, and ammunition replenishment. At present, the best outcome that can be achieved in this negotiation is to reach some framework consensus and continue to extend the ceasefire. The biggest variable is whether Israel, which is not at the negotiating table, will continue to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. The oil price next week is closely related to this negotiation. If feasible navigation arrangements are negotiated, there will be a significant decline in oil prices; If there is only verbal goodwill but actual passage is still obstructed, the decline in oil prices will not be deep; If the talks collapse, oil prices will quickly rebound. So, always pay attention to the passage of the strait