小龙先生|4月 18, 2026 20:45
April 22: High-probability trend reversal window marking the end of Wave 4 and the start of Wave 5!
Core Basis 1: Natural Trading Theory – Primary vs. Secondary Volume.
According to Natural Trading Theory, primary volume determines trend direction.
Wave 4 is merely a rebound within the bearish trend, not a reversal. When the bullish rebound volume starts to weaken, Wave 5 will kick off.
Core Basis 2: Natural Trading Theory – Fib Trend Timing.
Using October 11, 2025 (when bearish primary volume emerged) as anchor point 0, and February 6, 2026 (Wave 4 rebound starting point) as anchor point 1:
1.618 is the high-volatility zone, so pay close attention to the days around April 20.
Core Basis 3: Geopolitics – U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiration date.
April 22 marks the ceasefire expiration, which is the biggest short-term geopolitical variable.
With these three factors overlapping, the certainty of this trend reversal window is higher. It’s estimated that around April 22, Bitcoin’s price will rebound to the 0.786-1 axis range, i.e., $78,000-$80,000.
A couple of days ago, BTC’s price already rebounded to a high of around $78,200. If the U.S. and Iran reach a basic agreement on April 22, the price could surge to around $79,500 or even touch $80,000. At that point, this weekly Wave 4 dead-cat bounce would essentially be over. Next, we’ll see some high-level consolidation for a while, followed by a major mid-term trend reversal, and the weekly Wave 5 will quickly take center stage!
Brothers and sisters, the critical trend reversal window and the highest rebound price point have been mapped out for you. In the chart below, the Fibonacci ascending channel’s E point (the 1 axis position) is a great spot to short Bitcoin.
After April 22, wait for bearish signals on the 4-hour or daily chart, combined with the four pre-reversal validation dimensions: order book data, ETF institutional fund flows, on-chain data (whale holdings), and volume-price relationships. That’s when we’ll strike hard against Bitcoin bulls.
Let’s eagerly await this moment and verify the reliability of the three-dimensional trading system together!
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